El Nino could be strongest in decades, UN warns

Published 2026-09-04 · Updated 2026-09-04 · 3 min · 609 words

UPSC CSE Context

Why in News

WMO warns current El Nino may become strongest on record, with peak expected late 2026 and impacts extending into 2027.

Syllabus Connection

Geography (climatology), Environment (climate change), Disaster Management.

Exam Relevance

High relevance for UPSC CSE Prelims and Mains due to frequent questions on El Nino, climate extremes, and disaster preparedness.

Core Issue

Unprecedented El Nino intensification threatens global weather extremes.

Key Development

WMO forecasts a 'very strong' El Nino, possibly the strongest since monitoring began, with sea surface temperature anomalies projected to peak at +3.6°C.

Stakeholders

• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
• Disaster management authorities
• Climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, fisheries, health, energy, water)
• International Organization for Migration (IOM)

Static Knowledge

High-Value Background

• El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
• It typically occurs every 2-7 years and lasts 9-12 months, altering global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns.

Exam Linkage

• Useful for questions on ENSO, climate variability, and their socio-economic impacts.

Concepts in Context

• Sea surface temperature anomaly is the deviation from long-term average, used to classify El Nino intensity.
• Teleconnections refer to climate impacts far from the tropical Pacific, such as altered monsoon patterns.

Institutions and Mechanisms

• WMO issues El Nino/La Nina updates and coordinates global climate monitoring.
• IOM provides humanitarian assistance for climate-induced displacement.

Dynamic Analysis

Disaster Management

• Increased risk of floods, droughts, and heatwaves requires proactive early warning systems and contingency planning.
• Vulnerable populations in climate-sensitive sectors face heightened exposure, necessitating targeted adaptation measures.
• The $110 million IOM appeal indicates potential for climate-induced displacement and migration.

Economy

• Agricultural output may decline due to erratic rainfall, affecting food security and rural incomes.
• Energy demand could spike from extreme heat, straining power infrastructure and increasing costs.
• Fisheries may be disrupted by ocean warming, impacting livelihoods and export revenues.

International Relations

• Global cooperation is essential for climate monitoring and data sharing to mitigate transboundary impacts.
• Developing nations may require financial and technical assistance to cope with El Nino-induced disasters.
• The UN's role in coordinating humanitarian response highlights the need for multilateral frameworks.

Environment and Ecology

• Marine heatwaves can cause coral bleaching and disrupt marine ecosystems.
• Terrestrial ecosystems may face stress from altered precipitation, affecting biodiversity.
• Feedback loops between El Nino and climate change could amplify global warming trends.

Prelims Takeaways

• El Nino is classified by WMO into weak, moderate, strong, or very strong based on sea surface temperature anomalies.
• The 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record.

Mains Value Addition

Arguments

• The unprecedented intensity of this El Nino underscores the compounding effects of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change.
• Effective disaster risk reduction requires integrating climate forecasts into sectoral planning.
• International solidarity is crucial to address the asymmetric impacts of climate extremes on vulnerable nations.

Examples

• WMO's forecast of a +3.6°C anomaly peak, surpassing the 1997-98 and 2015-16 events.

Data Points

• Sea surface temperature anomalies reached 2.2-2.6°C above average in late July to mid-August 2026.
• Sub-surface ocean temperatures were more than 8°C above average in some areas.

Counterpoints

• The strength of the El Nino peak does not directly correlate with the severity of impacts, as noted by WMO.
• Uncertainty remains in long-range forecasts, limiting precise regional predictions.

Way Forward

• Strengthen early warning systems and disseminate timely advisories to at-risk communities.
• Implement climate-resilient agricultural practices and water conservation measures.
• Enhance international cooperation for data sharing and coordinated humanitarian response.
• Invest in climate adaptation infrastructure, such as heat-resilient buildings and flood defenses.
• Integrate El Nino forecasts into national disaster management and development planning.

Primary/reference source: World Affairs