10 years since Burhan Wani’s death, how Kashmir’s insurgency has changed

Published 2026-07-09 · Updated 2026-07-09 · 3 min · 442 words

UPSC CSE Context

Why in News: 10 years since Burhan Wani's killing, Kashmir's insurgency has transformed with sharp decline in local recruitment and violence. Syllabus Connection: Security: internal security challenges, terrorism, and counter-insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. Exam Relevance: Provides insights into evolving nature of terrorism, role of social media, and counter-insurgency strategies for UPSC CSE. ## Core Issue Kashmir insurgency shifts from urban social-media-driven recruitment to opaque, forest-based operations led by Pakistani operatives. Key Development: Local terrorist numbers have plummeted to near zero, but Pakistani operatives maintain a presence of around 30. Stakeholders:

• Security forces
• Local terrorists
• Pakistani operatives (Lashkar-e-Taiba)
• Civilian population
• Hizbul Mujahideen ## Static Knowledge High-Value Background:
• Burhan Wani's 2015 social media post triggered a wave of local recruitment, peaking in 2018 with 266 terrorist killings. Exam Linkage:
• Useful for questions on counter-terrorism strategies, radicalization via social media, and internal security challenges. Concepts in Context:
• HUMINT (Human Intelligence) and TECHINT (Technological Intelligence) are critical in counter-insurgency operations.
• The 'Burhan model' refers to using social media for radicalization and recruitment, now deemed unsustainable. Institutions and Mechanisms:
• Jammu and Kashmir Police's anti-insurgency wing plays a key role in operations.
• Lashkar-e-Taiba is a Pakistan-based terrorist group active in Kashmir. ## Dynamic Analysis ### Security
• Decline in local recruitment indicates success of de-radicalization and counter-insurgency, but risk of sleeper cells remains.
• Pakistani operatives' takeover suggests a strategic shift to sustain insurgency with fewer, more resilient fighters.
• Reduced online chatter makes TECHINT less effective, forcing reliance on HUMINT and traditional policing. ### Society
• Sharp decline in civilian deaths (from 88 in 2018 to 1 this year) reflects improved security and normalcy for locals.
• Social media's role in radicalization has diminished, but anonymity in communication poses new challenges.
• The 'Burhan model' failure may deter future tech-savvy youth from joining insurgency. ### International Relations
• Pakistan's continued support via Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives indicates cross-border terrorism persists despite diplomatic pressure.
• India's counter-insurgency success may strengthen its narrative on Pakistan's state-sponsored terrorism. ## Mains Value Addition Arguments:
• Counter-insurgency success requires a mix of HUMINT and TECHINT, with emphasis on local intelligence.
• Decline in local recruitment does not eliminate the threat; foreign operatives can sustain insurgency with lower numbers. Data Points:
• Terrorist killings declined from 266 in 2018 to 10 in 2026 (so far). Counterpoints:
• Reduced violence may lead to complacency; security officials caution that the situation remains complex.
• Opaque insurgency with fewer operatives is harder to track and may pose long-term risks. ## Way Forward
• Maintain robust intelligence networks combining HUMINT and TECHINT to counter opaque insurgency.
• Focus on de-radicalization programs to prevent future recruitment, especially among educated youth.
• Strengthen border management to prevent infiltration of Pakistani operatives.
• Enhance community policing to build trust and gather local intelligence.

Primary/reference source: National Affairs